6h ago
Downtrend remains intact on Bitcoin for now but some lower timeframe shifts here that suggest we might break out of it soon.
We want a 3D close above $110k to start to feel some enthusiasm but it's really time to pay attention.
From an alt perspective $KTA, $PUMP and $TAO and $ZEC look the most appealing for longs.
I attempted to long $XPL yesterday because I am a glutton for punishment, and got carried out on a stretcher.
I still think we are going to get a $HYPE style run for $XPL, but don't be a hero catching the bottom, can wait for the uptrend to establish itself.
Bear market calls are woefully premature IMO, see the appended post for what we need to see for that to transpire.
4d ago
I'm not here to sway anyone - bullish or bearish - but to explain why I believe we're still in a bull market, why I plan to look for mid-term longs, and what would need to change for me to rethink that.
In a nutshell: the key barometer for me is that Bitcoin and key legacy indices are still above the 50WMA right now, after bouncing off it several times.
Add to that a politically favorable regime for crypto, the TACO inevitability of the global trade war, and imminent improving liquidity condition with M2 already being at a record high (rate decreases, QT ending, and China printing more as they deal with deflation) and you've got IMO an overtly bullish contextual case.
If any of this changes, I'll change my stance.
Specifically, I'm watching out for:
(1) The Bank of Japan hiking rates (not likely this year)
(2) Any CPI super pump (right now truflation and crude oil prices are in our favor)
(3) BRICS turning overtly anti-crypto (some moves are happening behind the scenes with China feeling threatened by stablecoins already here, and buying up gold like a drunken sailor - definitely something to keep an eye on)
(4) DAT liquidity drying up (a 2026 issue IMO)
For now, I'm staying data-driven: we're in a bull market and my bias it to be looking for mid-term longs.
If the above shifts, I'll look to short some worthless altcoins to the ground.
This is not to say go blindly long - wait for those higher highs and higher lows as people like @Trader_XO have already pointed out.
If you've got a solid bearish thesis, always happy to hear it, drop me a line on Telegram, same handle as on here.
The liquidation debacle from last weekend will take to resolve by the way, and in the meantime I'd stick to majors and alts with clearly established uptrends.
One mistake I made this cycle is holding alts too long and giving back too much - we remain in a short-term narrative driven environment for most alts, and as soon as the trend gives up, you should look to book gains.
This may change once we see Ethereum in price discovery. I believe the best alt gains are yet to come, but I have my invalidations and I know what would change my mind. And you should too.
God speed ladies and gents. Ensure you make it out the other side no matter what happens.
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