Everyone is screaming that the Bear Market has started
BUT THEY’RE WRONG we’re in a massive Bear Trap
I spent 21 hours analyzing all market data
Here’s what the market is actually heading into 🧵👇
❶
Yes, the market has fallen, but this is not yet a bear market as everyone is shouting
It looks like a typical bear trap masking an upcoming rally
Many confuse these states even though they have completely different consequences
And right now the odds of returning to an uptrend look much stronger than the pessimism
❷
Why does everyone think it's a bear market?
Because price is dropping fast and deep while bounces are weak and short
Volumes are low, alts look dead and $BTC dominance is rising
But this is a typical cleansing scenario before the cycle continues
❸
A real bear market looks different from what we're seeing now
There are no aggressive dip buyers and no steady ETF inflows
No sustained macro trend and strong inflationary support
And most importantly - no sign of capitulation, which we still haven't seen
❹
The drop we've seen is a market breakdown caused by a series of short shocks
Macro hasn't changed enough to flip the cycle downward
Neither rates, nor liquidity, nor the labor market confirm a bear trend
We're seeing a deep correction, not a global trend reversal
❺
Yes, there are factors pressuring the market and creating chaos in the feeds
The AI sector is overheated and continues to deflate after its peak
Whales have conducted aggressive rebalances and forced margin squeezes
Exchanges choked liquidity, making the market fall faster
❻
But the key point - institutions are not exiting the market, they are regrouping
ETF flows have slowed down but haven't turned into steady outflows
Funds' long positions were reduced in ripped bursts, not systematically
This is accumulation behavior, not market exit
❼
How long will this last?
A few weeks or a few strong moves until the market clears out
The goal of this period is to flush weak capital and restore depth
Once that happens the market will return to growth phase
❽
The consequences of this period will be immediately visible
Alts that hit deep levels will show the first impulses
Bitcoin will stabilize in a narrower range and absorb liquidity
Then a gradual recovery will begin that everyone will call "unexpected"
❾
But risks also exist and must be understood
If ETFs move into outflows the market will face another wave of pressure
If macro suddenly worsens the cycle could enter a prolonged pause
But right now these scenarios are NOT the base case
❿
We're not in a bear market - we're in a deep Bear Trap before recovery
Those who panic will lose while those who think in data will gain an edge
This period creates the best entry points in the cycle
And whoever understands this now will win when the market moves again
2,46 tis.
2
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